(NAIROBI, KENYA) – Global Brent crude prices have crossed the $100 (KES 12,941) mark for the first time since July 2026, pointing to higher pump prices in Kenya for the new monthly pricing cycle from 15th October.
Market data shows that oil prices rose around 1% on Thursday, extending gains that kept Brent crude above $100 a barrel for a second running day even as traders braced for further supply disruptions following the largest attacks on shipping since the six month old US Israel conflict with Iran began. Brent crude is the primary international benchmark used to price roughly two thirds of the world’s traded crude oil, which explains why the current price rally will hit Kenya and other countries that are net importers of refined fuel.
In the latest flare up, the US military attacked five Iranian crude oil carriers overnight on Wednesday, with Iran retaliating with missile attacks on US forces in Jordan and attacks on shipping.
Local industry executives say that prices of petrol and diesel have, in the past nine days, increased by $87 (KES 11,258.7) and $52 (KES 6,729.3) per cubic metre respectively, based on the Platts pricing. A cubic metre is equivalent to 1,000 litres.
Platts prices refer to the daily benchmark price assessments used in the global commodity markets for products including refined petroleum products.
Executives say pump prices are likely to be affected in the new pricing cycle from Tuesday 15th September 2026.
“The recent escalation of the war has an impact on the refined products and already, in the past few days, the Platts prices for super have gone up by an average of $87 per cubic metre and $57 for the same quantity of diesel,” said an executive who declined to be named.
“Based on the information that we currently have on the daily Platts for the last nine days, the prices will definitely go up in the monthly cycle from October 14.”
A litre of diesel fell by KES 5 to KES 217.86 in Nairobi in the current cycle ending 14th September, while that of petrol and kerosene remained unchanged at KES 214.03 and KES 191.38 respectively after the state used diesel to cross subsidise the two grades of fuel and prevent their prices from rising.
US President Donald Trump on Thursday said the war with Iran will not end until after the US midterm elections, comments that look set to unsettle the global energy market further.
“I think the war’s going to end immediately after the election because they can’t hold out any longer. Right after the election, oil prices are going to be tumbling downward. I think it’s going to take a little bit longer than the midterm,” Mr Trump said.
The US will hold the midterm elections on 3rd November this year, with Mr Trump’s Republican Party widely tipped to lose control of Congress to the Democrats.
Steep prices of diesel, petrol and kerosene will hit consumers, besides driving inflation locally unless the government subsidises prices to cushion users.
Diesel is the main fuel in Kenya and is used to power farm machinery, industries and public transport. Goods manufacturers and service providers factor in the costs of diesel in the pricing of their goods and services.
Diesel significantly affects inflation, and the anticipated increase in its prices will drive the measure of the cost of living (inflation), which marginally rose to 6.6% last month from 6.5%.
A near depletion of the Petroleum Development Levy (PDL) kitty could further limit the state’s ability to subsidise fuel prices in the monthly cycle from 15th October 2026.
The Ministry of Energy and Petroleum in June warned that the PDL kitty was running low due to the steep subsidies applied from April this year when the US Iran war sent global prices of refined fuel to record highs.
The PDL kitty is funded by collections of KES 5.40 per litre of diesel and petrol and KES 0.40 for every litre of kerosene. The money is used to subsidise fuel prices, besides other critical interventions in the petroleum sector.
In the current cycle that lapses on 14th September, the state was forced to use diesel to cross subsidise users of petrol amid the near depletion of the PDL kitty.
However, the cross subsidy denied diesel users bigger price cuts as the state opted to shield petrol consumers from steep price increases.