(NAIROBI, KENYA) – Kenya’s exports to China rebounded by nearly 60% in the first three months of a duty free trade deal, driven by coffee and copper scrap shipments following the preferential tariff arrangement.
Export earnings rose to KES 7.05 billion ($1.08 million) in the April to June 2026 period, from KES 4.41 billion ($678,461) in the same period last year. This was the first quarterly performance under the zero tariff arrangement.
The recovery signals an improvement in Kenya’s export fortunes in a market where traditional earners, including titanium ores and macadamia nuts, have lost ground.
However, earnings in the second quarter were 17.2% below the KES 8.51 billion ($1.3 million) recorded in April to June 2024. This highlights the challenge of rebuilding Kenya’s export presence despite improved access to China’s consumer market.
The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics attributed the recovery partly to increased shipments of copper waste and scrap and coffee, pointing to a shift in the country’s export basket.
“There were increased domestic exports of coffee and copper waste and scrap to China,” the bureau wrote in its second quarter 2026 Balance of Payments report.
Earnings from copper waste and scrap exports to China increased from KES 303.46 million ($46,686) in 2022 to KES 1.18 billion ($181,538) in 2023. They reached KES 3.24 billion ($498,461) in 2024, according to KNBS commodity data.
The commodity became Kenya’s leading export to China in April to June 2025, valued at KES 1.68 billion ($258,461). This was ahead of unroasted coffee at KES 685.44 million ($105,452) and black tea at KES 484.39 million ($74,521).
Its growing importance comes as Kenya’s titanium exports have lost a major source of supply following the exhaustion of mineral deposits in Kwale.
Titanium ores mined in Kwale since 2013 were exhausted in 2024, with the last consignment shipped in early 2025. This marked the end of a key foreign exchange earner in the extractives sector.
In 2022, titanium ores and concentrates generated KES 12.06 billion ($1.85 million) in exports to China, making the mineral one of Kenya’s most valuable commodities in the market.
However, earnings from the mineral fell to KES 9.9 billion ($1.52 million) in 2023 and plunged further to KES 4.25 billion ($653,846) in 2024, reflecting the depletion of the Kwale deposits.
Kenya’s macadamia exports have also faced regulatory constraints after the Agriculture and Food Authority imposed a harvesting and export ban in 2025. The ban was meant to allow nuts to mature and protect quality.
Macadamia shipments to China were valued at KES 1.15 billion ($176,923) in 2024, making the restrictions another challenge for a market that has traditionally absorbed Kenya’s agricultural and mineral exports.
The changing commodity mix coincides with a major trade initiative intended to improve Kenyan exporters’ access to China through preferential tariff treatment.
On 24th March, Deputy President Kithure Kindiki and China’s Vice President Han Zheng flagged off 54 containers of Kenyan products at the Syokimau Standard Gauge Railway terminus for shipment through the Port of Mombasa.
The consignment included avocados, avocado oil, coffee, hides and skins, among other products, under the Kenya-China Early Harvest Agreement and broader zero tariff framework.
Investments, Trade and Industry Cabinet Secretary Lee Kinyanjui described the initiative as transformative for Kenya’s export ambitions.
“This is more than a policy shift; it is a game changer that opens the door to one of the world’s largest consumer markets and positions Kenya for a new era of trade growth and value addition,” Mr Kinyanjui said.