(KYIV, UKRAINE) – Ukrainian banks expect business and household loan portfolios to keep growing over the next 12 months, and they forecast rising demand across all types of borrowing, according to a fresh survey by the National Bank of Ukraine.
The central bank published the results of its bank lending conditions poll on Wednesday. Credit managers at 25 financial institutions took part between 16 June and 8 July 2026. Those banks together hold 96 percent of the total assets in the country’s banking system.
Lenders still project an expansion of their credit books. However the balance of responses on the expected change in lending volumes to both companies and individuals has fallen to its lowest level since the second quarter of 2023. That suggests the pace of optimism has softened even as growth continues.
Business demand for loans rose across all categories during the second quarter. Banks expect the trend to hold in the third quarter, with the strongest interest likely in long term corporate loans. Companies carried a medium debt burden in the April to June period, according to the survey findings.
On the household side, demand for borrowing also increased. Banks see further gains ahead, driven mainly by mortgages. The debt load for households was assessed as low. Financial institutions eased their credit standards slightly for mortgage and consumer loans and signalled they will loosen them further. The approval rate for household loan applications moved higher, and banks reported lower interest rates on both consumer loans and mortgages.
Several risk measures ticked up in the second quarter. Credit risk, currency risk and liquidity risk all increased. Banks expect currency risk and credit risk to strengthen further in the third quarter.
Separate data from the government’s affordable loans programme showed that entrepreneurs received credits backed by state guarantees worth UAH 4.3 billion in June. That sum equals approximately USD 104 million, GBP 81 million, or EUR 95 million at current exchange rates. The figure illustrates how state support continues to channel funding into the business sector alongside the commercial lending tracked by the central bank survey.
The overall lending picture points to a banking system that is still willing to extend credit to an economy operating under wartime conditions. Demand is broad, covering working capital, investment loans, mortgages and consumer finance. The caution evident in the lowest sentiment balances since early 2023 reflects the pressures of currency fluctuation, liquidity management and the broader security environment, all of which feed into bank risk assessments.