(NAIROBI, KENYA) – Milk supplies have tightened across Kenya as a prolonged dry spell cuts dairy production, forcing some supermarkets and retail outlets to ration purchases. Formal sector milk intake fell from 88.89 million litres in May 2026 to 84.44 million litres in June, according to Kenya National Bureau of Statistics data cited by the Consumers Federation of Kenya (COFEK).
June intake was 6.4% below the 90.24 million litres recorded in the same month last year. Cumulative intake between January and June stood at 513.32 million litres, slightly below the 516.34 million litres recorded during the same period in 2025.
A spot check at several supermarkets and retail outlets in Nairobi found empty or semi stocked shelves, with some retailers limiting the amount of milk customers can buy. At some outlets, consumers were being limited to as little as one litre of milk from dispensers, while some wholesalers were restricting purchases of packaged milk to five packets per customer instead of a carton.
Long life milk was retailing at between KES 54 and KES 65, while the few brands of fresh milk available were selling at between KES 61 and KES 65. At Waithaka Dairy Centre, the price of fresh milk had increased from KES 70 to KES 80 per litre.
COFEK Secretary General Stephen Mutoro said the government must take immediate and coordinated measures to restore normal milk supplies and stabilise prices. He attributed the decline partly to worsening conditions for smallholder dairy farmers, who account for about 80% of Kenya’s milk production.
Mutoro called on the Ministry of Agriculture to publish a recovery plan and activate emergency fodder and feed support for affected dairy counties. He also urged the National Treasury to waive import duty and VAT on key dairy feed ingredients, including yellow maize and soya, to reduce production costs.
Farmers are reporting yields falling from seven to nine litres to four to five litres per cow a day as pasture deteriorates following delayed rains and feed costs rise. Andrew Mbogo, a dairy farmer in Narumoru, Nyeri County, said grass has dried and the little nappier grass he has is almost finished. Milk harvest has gone down by almost half and if there are no rains, this could get worse. Mbogo keeps two dairy cows, which produce about 20 litres of milk a day under favourable conditions. He sells the milk to a dairy cooperative and relies on the income to repay loans.
The dry conditions have also forced some pastoralists to move their livestock in search of pasture and water. A pastoralist in Oloitoktok, Kajiado County, said livestock keepers had moved animals to ranches in Taita Taveta, where they pay KES 300 per cow per month for grazing and water. The fee amounts to about $2.30 / £1.80 / €2.10 per cow per month.
According to the National Drought Management Authority, 52.2% of monitored arid and semi arid counties recorded milk production below the long term average in July. The authority attributed the decline to diminishing pasture and browse, longer distances to water, deteriorating livestock body conditions and depletion of gains from the previous rainy season.
Kieni Dairy Products Limited Chief Executive Officer Solomon Maina said the shortage cannot be blamed entirely on declining production. He said high operating costs, including fuel prices, are forcing some processors to reduce pasteurised milk production and shift to higher value products such as yoghurt, ice cream and cheese. Maina also said delayed payments to farmers could be pushing producers towards the informal market, where milk fetches KES 70 to KES 80 per litre and farmers are paid promptly.
Maina said the shortage may not necessarily be caused by farmers because there are places like Nyandarua where it has been raining, but could be attributed to other factors such as working capital and distribution logistics. He expects milk supplies to improve around October when the short rains begin, provided the rains are sufficient to restore pasture and water.
Kenya Dairy Board Managing Director William Maritim said formal milk deliveries to processors declined by 3.7% from 84.4 million litres in June 2026 to 81.3 million litres in July 2026. He said the Board is currently compiling formal milk intake data for August 2026, with preliminary indications suggesting a further decline in milk deliveries, reflecting the prevailing seasonal production conditions.
Maritim said recent market surveillance undertaken by the Board has identified varying degrees of supply constraints across the country, reflected in low stock levels, reduced availability of some brands and pack sizes, and delayed replenishment in some outlets. Pasteurised milk has generally been more affected, while long life milk remains comparatively more available. Retail milk prices remain generally stable, although some upward price movement has been observed in parts of the country experiencing supply constraints.
Maritim said the government is implementing measures to strengthen milk production and the resilience of the dairy value chain. These include procurement and distribution of milk coolers to improve milk aggregation and preservation, and support for dairy herd improvement through subsidised sexed semen.
The outlook for the October to December 2026 rainfall season is expected to support recovery in pasture and fodder availability, leading to improved milk production and supply as conditions become more favourable. The Kenya Dairy Board continues to monitor milk production, formal milk deliveries, market availability and retail prices and is working with industry stakeholders to support continuity of supply.