(BRUSSELS) – Russia’s military industrial complex will depend on imports of strategic minerals until at least 2035, leaving its defence production open to external economic pressure, according to a new report by the Economic Security Council of Ukraine.
The study finds that despite holding the world’s largest reserves of mineral resources, Russia lacks complete production chains to supply its defence sector with essential raw materials. After 2022, the Kremlin announced plans to increase extraction of scarce minerals, but most projects will not deliver industrial scale output before 2035.
China remains the main supplier of critical raw materials to Russia. Between April 2024 and March 2025, Beijing provided 97 percent of Russia’s tungsten imports, delivering 240 tonnes worth $9.8 million (£7.7 million, €9 million). China also supplied 58 percent of niobium products, or 1,732 tonnes valued at $64 million (£50.2 million, €58.5 million), 30 percent of tantalum, equating to 3.8 tonnes worth $4 million (£3.1 million, €3.7 million), and 31.5 percent of alumina, totalling 1.6 million tonnes at a cost of $1 billion (£784 million, €914 million).
Ferroniobium, used by Russia’s defence industry to produce high strength and heat resistant steels for missile bodies, engines and armoured vehicles, also arrived from the western hemisphere. Brazil supplied around 30 percent of imports, 1,033 tonnes worth more than $33 million (£25.9 million, €30.2 million). Canada provided 11.7 percent, or 388 tonnes valued at $12.8 million (£10 million, €11.7 million). In addition, 82 tonnes of Dutch ferroniobium reached Russia through Turkey, while another 40 tonnes of Brazilian and Canadian material was re-exported from Germany.
Alumina for aluminium production, used in aviation and in cruise and ballistic missiles including the Kh-101, Kalibr and Iskander systems, was also sourced from Ireland. Ireland delivered 960,350 tonnes worth $567.68 million (£445.2 million, €518.8 million), representing 17 percent of Russian imports.
Deliveries from Kazakhstan held critical importance for the Russian defence sector. Kazakhstan provided 76 percent of beryllium products, valued at $11.03 million (£8.6 million, €10.1 million), and 69 percent of tantalum imports, worth $9.28 million (£7.3 million, €8.5 million). ESCU analysts identified these materials in the production chains of the Iskander-M, Kinzhal and Pantsir-S systems, as well as Kh-59 missiles.
Uzbekistan and Belarus together supplied rhenium raw materials for missile and aircraft engines, shipping 3.95 tonnes and 290 tonnes respectively.
Armenia delivered significant volumes of molybdenum products, 2,058 tonnes worth $65.25 million (£51.2 million, €59.6 million), accounting for 42 percent of Russian imports. Almost all of this volume was ferromolybdenum, used in steels for the aviation, missile and military industries.
Olena Yurchenko, director of analytics, research and investigations at ESCU, said stopping the supply of strategic minerals would inevitably lead to weapons shortages in Russia and would serve as a strong argument in favour of a ceasefire. She added that this would require decisive economic restrictions against the entire supply ecosystem, from raw materials to traders, exporters and logistics hubs.
The European Union is planning to impose record sanctions against 1,600 firms for assisting Russia.