(MOSCOW, RUSSIA) – Ukrainian drone strikes have disabled more than 30% of Russia’s actual oil refining capacity and 45% of its nominal capacity, triggering the country’s worst modern fuel crisis, according to an analysis by the British newspaper Financial Times based on satellite imagery, refinery layouts, photographs and thermal infrared data.
The analysis found that damage at several major Russian oil refineries has been repaired slowly, with signs of Ukrainian attacks remaining visible for weeks or months after strikes.
Satellite images show repair work progressing at a limited pace. More than a month after attacks caused fires at a refinery in Moscow, the damaged white roof of a large oil storage tank remained where it had fallen. Three smaller tanks, a pumping station and pipelines connecting the facilities to the wider refinery complex also appeared significantly damaged.
The Financial Times analysis found that evidence of Ukrainian attacks remained visible from space at many of Russia’s 10 largest refineries, including facilities in Omsk, Moscow and Tuapse, long after the strikes occurred.
Ukrainian forces have increasingly targeted sections of Russia’s Soviet era refining infrastructure that are difficult to replace or repair, reducing refinery operations.
Among the most vulnerable components are units used to remove salt and water from crude oil before processing. One such unit was recently damaged at the Omsk refinery, one of the world’s largest oil processing facilities, located about 2,500 kilometres from Ukraine’s border.
Research by Fabio Sabatini’s team at Sapienza University of Rome measured night time thermal emissions around 29 major Russian refineries between June 2022 and May 2026.
The researchers found that after an initial strike, thermal activity around affected facilities fell by about 30% within a one kilometre radius and by up to 18% within a five kilometre radius.
The decline in activity at facilities damaged during the previous year continued for more than 13 months, indicating prolonged disruption to refinery operations.
Thermal satellite imagery from German intelligence company Constellr showed that the Kstovo refinery in Nizhny Novgorod had remained inactive after Ukrainian drone strikes on 18 and 20 May.
The latest available satellite image from 18 July showed that the refinery’s distillation unit was still producing no detectable thermal signal, suggesting continued suspension of operations.
Earlier reports said Russian oil processing volumes had fallen to their lowest level since 2005 following Ukrainian drone attacks on refinery infrastructure.