(MOSCOW, RUSSIA) – Direct losses at Wildberries could exceed 100 billion roubles after a campaign against its warehouses destroyed at least 14 logistics hubs. The figure could reach 200 billion roubles under a pessimistic scenario, according to Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service.
The losses have broken the business model of Russia’s largest marketplace, which sold goods worth about three percent of national GDP every year.
The company has lost at least 20 percent of its warehouse capacity in a few weeks. Direct losses could exceed 100 billion roubles, equal to $1.1 billion or £870 million at current exchange rates. Under a pessimistic scenario the figure could reach 200 billion roubles, equal to $2.2 billion or £1.7 billion.
Wildberries’ total financing need is already estimated at 1.3 trillion roubles, equal to $14.4 billion or £11.3 billion. That is the amount the company would have to borrow simply to remain solvent.
Sellers are leaving the platform in large numbers, having lost business and goods worth hundreds of billions of roubles. The marketplace’s turnover has already fallen by at least a quarter.
The damage has not only hit current results. It has also undermined the financial pyramid that company owner Tatiana Kim spent years building.
The scheme was simple. Wildberries received money from buyers immediately but transferred funds to sellers only after several weeks. During that time, the money stayed in the company’s working capital and funded current expenses and discounts.
The model holds while turnover grows. Once it falls, the pyramid starts to collapse. Accumulated expenses are no longer covered by the inflow of new money, and the company builds up losses.
If payments to sellers start being delayed not by three weeks but by three months, liquidity problems will spread to the sellers themselves, the intelligence service said.
The marketplace’s turnover continues to fall, and this is only the start of a long decline. After such a blow, the company will remain loss making for years to come, the service noted.
Russia’s government is preparing a support package for sellers. It includes tax holidays and subsidised loans. The marketplace itself may be allowed to use Russian Post warehouses instead of the burned hubs.
That would put another structure under pressure, one that is already barely standing. Russian Post’s net loss for 2025 grew to 23.7 billion roubles, equal to $263 million or £207 million. Its net debt exceeded 107 billion roubles, equal to $1.2 billion or £930 million.
The Kremlin has no money for soft loans to Wildberries unless it launches additional currency issuance.
According to Russia’s Finance Ministry, the federal budget deficit reached 5.7 trillion roubles in the first half of the year. That is equal to $63.2 billion or £49.7 billion. The figure is one and a half times the plan for the entire year.
Kremlin analysts forecast the budget hole will grow to 7 trillion roubles by the end of the year, equal to $77.6 billion or £61 billion. Russia’s central bank estimates it could exceed 8 trillion roubles, equal to $88.7 billion or £69.7 billion.
Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service previously reported that Sberbank, Russia’s largest bank, showed a rapid decline in the quality of its loan portfolio in its first half 2026 results.